DEMOCRACY

IN DANGER Thais once marched for the right to vote, but greater political freedom has led to bitter divisions between the middle classes and the poor. It’s the same story in much of the developing world joshua kurlantzick image s bronstein/get ty

For decades, political theorists have considered the growth of a middle class to be the key to successful democratisation. Yet, in the last ten years, middle classes across the developing world have begun to defy that claim. From Thailand, Russia and Ukraine to Venezuela, Honduras and the Philippines, as young democracies face new threats, their middle classes have bucked the trend. The causes of this retreat are varied—from elected leaders defying the rule of law to corruption and excessive redistribution of wealth. But as recent events in Thailand have shown, if the middle and poorer classes become divided over democratic rights, the political system itself can fall apart. And these democratic rollbacks can unleash damaging conflicts, especially between the middle classes and the poor.

The late political scientist Samuel Huntington was one of paula

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Joshua Kurlantzick is fellow for southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, DC

many academics to link class and democracy. He argued that economic growth in developing countries expands the middle class, which, as it becomes wealthier and more educated, demands social, political and economic rights, largely to protect its gains. Meanwhile, as that middle class grows, regimes become more dependent on its entrepreneurs to power economic growth and authoritarian leaders are forced to listen to their demands. Such influence opens up the political system, with political and property rights following.

For decades, history seemed to uphold this theory, beginning with southern Europe after the second world war and extending to east Asia in the early 1990s. Nations developed their economies, middle classes blossomed, and educated urban people began to demand their rights. After 1990, the number of democracies rocketed: eastern and central Europe, much of Africa, and most nations in east Asia became democratic. By 2005, for the first time, more than half the world’s population was living in a democracy. Sometimes this had happened because the middle class took to the streets to june 2010 · prospect · 51