ISSUE 148 JULY 2008

Contributors to this issue

ALUN ANDERSON is writing a book on the future of the Arctic for HarperCollins

PHILIP BALL is a science writer

PETER BAZALGETTE was an independent television producer for 20 years

ANDREW BROWN is a writer and journalist

JASON BURKE writes for the Observer

TOM CHATFIELD is arts and books editor of Prospect

MARK COUSINS ’s collected Prospect columns are forthcoming from Wallflower Press

WILLIAM DALRYMPLE is a travel writer

JONATHAN FORD is deputy editor of Prospect

DAVID FRUM is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute

JOHN GIEVE is deputy governor for financial stability of the Bank of England

ROB GIFFORD is London bureau chief for National Public Radio

DAVID GOLDBLATT is the author of The Ball is Round (Penguin)

HELEN GOODMAN is a Labour MP

JULIAN GOUGH is the author of Jude: Level One (Old Street)

CHARLES GRANT is director of the Centre for European Reform

AC GRAYLING is a philosopher

MARK HANNAM is chair of Fair Finance

ROBERT HAZELL is a professor at UCL

DAVID HERMAN is a television producer

CAR HILLS is a former editor of PEN News

ROBERT IRWIN is the author of For Lust of Knowing (Penguin)

ANATOLE KALETSKY is an economic commentator on the Times

MARTIN KETTLE is a Guardian columnist

MARK KITTO runs a caféé near Shanghai

TOM LEE ’s debut short story collection is forthcoming from Harvill Secker

BEN LEWIS presents BBC4’s Art Safari

ALEXANDER LINKLATER is associate editor of Prospect

EHSAN MASOOD writes for Nature

ALEX MCBRIDE is a criminal barrister

ANDREW MORAVCSIK is a professor of politics at Princeton University

TOM NUTTALL is senior and online editor of Prospect

GEORGE SOROS is a financier

IAN STEWART is a mathematician

MARTIN WOLF is an FT columnist

contents

Coverstory 24A victory for the surfing Sufis Over half a million people voted in our poll to find the world’s top public intellectual—and Turkish cleric Fethullah Güülen won. Güülen,explains Ehsan Masood,is the modern face of SufiIslam and influences Turkish politics through the ruling AK party. Tom Nuttall on the campaign that propelled Güülen to victory

Opinions

12They stood by their man The Bush administration prized loyalty over competence. The next White House team will do the opposite. DAVID FRUM

13On liberty Philip Collins and Richard Reeves have told Labour to “liberalise.”But their notion of liberty is confused. HELEN GOODMAN

14Don’t know? Vote no! Ireland’s “no”vote to the Lisbon treaty had little to do with voters’ views on Europe. ANDREW MORAVCSIK

16Is Bin Laden losing? Al Qaeda has been losing momentum for years. JASON BURKE

18Salmond has far to leap The Scots are on course for a referendum on independence. But that would be only the first hurdle. ROBERT HAZELL

19The last literary traveller Rory MacLean keeps the travel writing torch aflame. WILLIAM DALRYMPLE

Interview

28Nicholas Stern Stern’s report on the economics of global warming changed the climate debate in 2006. Now he has an ambitious plan for a global political deal on climate change. ALUN ANDERSON

Roundtable

34How to stop the next bubble The financial crisis shows that laissezfaire regulation doesn’t work. The authorities must get a grip to avoid a mega-bubble. But we may need an even deeper crisis for that to happen. MARK

HANNAM,JONATHAN FORD,JOHN GIEVE,ANATOLE KALETSKY,GEORGE SOROS & MARTIN WOLF

40The sacred mystery of capital We have a need for a mysterious power greater than us. Once that need was met by religion—now it is supplied by “Incredible Hulk” financial capitalism. JULIAN GOUGH

Essay

42History’s new pessimists Over the last 50 years, the way history is written has grown bleaker. Is this because we are no longer confident that the gains humanity has made are worth the struggle? DAVID HERMAN

Witness

48Yellow river blues The Yellow river has always symbolised China’s dream of greatness. But now that China is once again becoming great, will it survive? ROB GIFFORD

Portrait

54George Osborne The shadow chancellor’s 2007 conference speech turned him into a “big beast.” But what will he do with power if and when he gets it? JONATHAN FORD

2 Prospect JULY2008 My story

60My Stockholm syndrome I went to Sweden in 1977 to live the modern socialist dream. But things did not turn out quite the way I—or the Social Democrats—would have wanted. ANDREW BROWN

Columns

10Common law My client’s a crackhead. ALEX MCBRIDE

21This sporting life The Dominican takeover of US baseball. DAVID GOLDBLATT

22Washington watch That difficult choice of running mate. TUMBLER

46China café é The government asks me to bend over. MARK KITTO

52Lab report Let’s hear it for nuclear waste disposal. PHILIP BALL

64Brussels diary Is a two-speed EU now on the way? MANNEKEN PIS

88The prisoner Belmarsh, you were good to me. CAR HILLS

Regulars

4Letters 6News & curiosities 8Grayling’s question AC GRAYLING 8Enigmas & puzzles IAN STEWART 82Classifieds 86The generalist 87The list

Forthcoming

ANDREW KEEN profiles Arianna Huffington

Prospect ’s Olympics special

EDWARD LUTTWAK reviews Fareed Zakaria

WENDELL STEAVENSON on Egypt’s food crisis The next issue of Prospect will be published on 31st July

www.prospect-magazine.co.uk

online arts & books

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Fiction

Archives Every article from every issue of Prospect .

66The starving millions Nick’s brother is a saint. And Nick can’t help hating him for it. TOM LEE

Reviews

74The voice of Tiananmen Exiled Chinese author Ma Jian talks to Prospect about his latest novel Beijing Coma . TOM CHATFIELD

76Help me to help myself Economists know that we don’t always act in our own interests. Now politicians are starting to take note. TOM NUTTALL

77The mind creates ghosts Patrick McGrath’s new novel shows his talent for dissecting our inner lives, and for blurring the line between sanity and sickness. ALEXANDER LINKLATER

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Web exclusives

DAVID GOODHART on the English question

REBECCA DAVIES asks why there are so few female film critics

DEREK BROWER on oil subsidies in the developing world.

783,000 years of dreaming Iran’s history is an astonishing tale of conflict and discontinuity. Parts of Michael Axworthy’s new book are more gripping than a novel. ROBERT IRWIN

79Mapping the Asian century Two books on the rise of Asia—one of them also a shrill attack on the west— agree on economics but disagree about the politics. CHARLES GRANT

Arts columns

71Private view Roman Abramovich goes art shopping.

BEN LEWIS

72Widescreen Hitchcock vs Picasso. MARK COUSINS

81Performance notes Margaret Hodge’s snotty ignorance.

MARTIN KETTLE

85Smallscreen Peep Show and the state of British comedy. PETER BAZALGETTE

Online archive

Revisit our past coverage of some of the topics covered in this issue.

Turkey

AATISH TASEER on the Turkic peoples NICHOLAS BIRCH on the real faultlines in modern Turkey MAUREEN FREELY recalls her childhood in Turkey HUGH POPE explains why the middle east is turning towardsTurkey

Conservatives

JOHN O’SULLIVAN puts the Conservative party on the couch

ANTHONY GIDDENS VSDAVID WILLETTS Has Cameron changed the Tories?

DANNY KRUGER on David Cameron’s big idea—fraternity

China

YIYUN LI looks back on her time in the Chinese army

ROB GIFFORD visits Hefei, China’s Silicon Valley

MARK KITTO has his company nicked by the Chinese government

DEYAN SUDJUC on Beijing’s buildings

Prospect JULY2008 3