CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS ISSUE

PHILIP BALL is a science writer

HILARY BENN is secretary of state for international development

VERNON BOGDANOR is professor of government at Oxford University

FRANCES CAIRNCROSS is rector of Exeter College, Oxford

MARK COUSINS is the author of The Story of Film (Pavilion Books)

JASON COWLEY is a senior editor at the Observer

WILLIAM DAVIES is studying for a PhD in sociology at Goldsmiths College

ROBERT DRUMMOND is a psychiatrist

WILLIAM EASTERLY is professor of economics at New York University

JUSTIN FISHER is professor of political science at Brunel University

FRANCIS FUKUYAMA teaches at Johns Hopkins University

ANTHONY GIDDENS is a former director of the London School of Economics

JULIAN GOUGH is a novelist and writer

DAVID HERMAN is a television producer

AMY JENKINS is a novelist, screenwriter and creator of the programme This Life

ERIC KAUFMANN is a senior lecturer at Birkbeck College

TIM KING is a writer living in France

HANS KUNDNANI is writing a book about the 1968 generation in Germany

HANIF KUREISHI is the author of The Word and the Bomb (Faber)

BEN LEWIS presents BBC4’s Art Safari

MICHAEL LIND is the Whitehead senior fellow at the New America Foundation

ALEXANDER LINKLATER is associate editor of Prospect

JOHN LLOYD is a writer for the FT

ALLAN MASSIE is a journalist and writer

HUGH POPE is the author of Sons of the Conquerors (Duckworth)

MICHAEL PREST is a freelance writer

FREDERIC RAPHAEL is a novelist and screenwriter

ALEX RENTON won the 2006 Glenfiddich award for best food writer

EDWARD SKIDELSKY is a writer

IAN STEWART is a professor of mathematics at Warwick University

ERIK TARLOFF is a writer and journalist

4PROSPECT November 2006

contents Issue one hundred and twenty-eight November 2006

OPINIONS 12The Pope’s reason EDWARD SKIDELSKY The Pope was making a serious point.

13Japanese dilemma FRANCIS FUKUYAMA After North Korea’s test.

14Backward glance DAVID HERMAN Finally the 1980s gets some respect.

15Against community WILLIAM DAVIES The most overused word in politics.

16Self-hatred at the BBC JOHN LLOYD The broadcaster is feeling guilty.

18Remember Europe ANTHONY GIDDENS A plea to Gordon Brown.

DEBATE 20Is foreign aid working? WILLIAM EASTERLY vsHILARY BENN Is Britain’s aid department raising expectations it cannot meet?

COVER STORY

26Breeding for God

ERIC KAUFMANN

In Europe, the fertility advantage of the religious over non-believers has historically been counterbalanced by secularisation. Not any more. Secularisation is in decline, and Islam continues to grow. Europe will start to adopt a more American model of modernity.

ESSAYS 32Turning to Turkey HUGH POPE For decades, middle easterners have seen Turkey as a western stooge. Now, with a more Islamic government in Ankara, relations are warming up.

36The world after Bush MICHAEL LIND The long 1990s are finally over, their utopian hopes beyond realisation. The neocon fantasy of US hegemony is discredited, and the neoliberal dream of a UN-led world is also doomed.

42Return ofthe Roman ALLAN MASSIE Novels, films and documentaries about the Romans are hugely popular. We are still dimly aware that our culture grew out of classical civilisation.

BRIEFING NOTES 46Reforming party funding JUSTIN FISHER With an official review preparing to report, is it time to put a cap on individual donations and consider real state funding for political parties? www.prospect-magazine.co.uk

HIS STORY 50Weddings and beheadings HANIF KUREISHI You’ve never heard of me, but you’ve probably seen my work on the news.

WITNESS 54Swing district ERIK TARLOFF Can the Dems win back congress? Ijoined them in Washington state.

COLUMNS 10Matters oftaste ALEX RENTON Is this the end for foie gras?

25Washington watch TUMBLER Could Bloomberg run for president?

41Inefficient markets MICHAEL PREST The crackdown on online gambling.

45France profonde TIM KING A self-portrait of France.

52Lab report PHILIP BALL Is carbon dioxide a pollutant?

57Brussels diary MANNEKEN PIS Verheugen’s red mist.

80Out ofmind ROBERT DRUMMOND &

ALEXANDER LINKLATER Depressed, dying and faithless.

REGULARS 6Letters 8News & Curiosities plus Enigmas & puzzles IAN STEWART 13Numbers game THE CRUNCHER 78The generalist DIDYMUS 79The list

arts&books

68Illuminating opera VERNON BOGDANOR The philosopher Bernard Williams brought a rare vigour and intelligence to writing on opera.

FICTION 58In the jar JULIAN GOUGH Adrift at sea, submerged in olive oil, all my bodily needs are satisfied, and I can dream.

REVIEWS 64The critic as stalker FREDERIC RAPHAEL Fawning and voyeuristic, David Thomson’s paean to his screen idol fails to excite the co-author of the Eyes Wide Shut screenplay.

65The worldwide niche FRANCES CAIRNCROSS The internet is helping revive niche products. But will the power of the big hit be reduced?

67Child’s play HANS KUNDNANI Günter Grass’s revelations about his Nazi past will end the temptation to take his political pronouncements seriously—which is no bad thing.

COLUMNS 62Widescreen MARK COUSINS Israeli suicide myths.

71Between the lines JASON COWLEY It’s Hannibal time again.

72Private view BEN LEWIS Simon Schama versus Kenneth Clark.

77Smallscreen AMY JENKINS Dire political drama from the BBC.

WEB EXCLUSIVES

Tim Winter explains why the Pope got it wrong on Islam

www.prospect-magazine.co.uk

FORTHCOMING

Henry Tricks on hedge funds

John Keeganexplains what constitutes a civil war

Paul Broks reviews Nicholas Humphrey’s book on consciousness

THE NEXT ISSUE OF PROSPECT IS PUBLISHED ON 16TH NOVEMBER

PROSPECT November 2006 5