As the world’s largest integrated commercial security printer and papermaker, De La Rue has been the trusted partner of governments, central banks, issuing authorities and commercial organisations around the world for 200 years.

De La Rue is involved in the design and production of over 150 national currencies as well as the supply of high speed cash sorting systems and related cash management processing solutions. The Group produces security documents including passports, driving licences, authentication labels and tax stamps as well as offering associated specialist services and issuing systems.

www.delarue.com february/ MarCH 2012

Contents

Editor Alan Philps aphilps@ chathamhouse.org Assistant Editor Agnes Frimston afrimston@ chathamhouse.org Design Esterson Associates Sub-Editor Richard Parrack Consulting Editor Burhan Wazir Picture Editor Millie Simpson The World Today is published by The Royal Institute of International Affairs at Chatham House in London. Any views expressed in this publication are those of the contributors. For submissions, letters, advertising, subscription enquiries and back copies, please contact: The Editor, The World Today, Chatham House, 10 St James’s Square, London, sw1y 4le. Telephone: +44 (0) 20 7957 5712 Email: wt@chathamhouse.org Permission to reprint or republish material from The World Today in any form must be sought from the Editor. Back copies are available from 1990. The World Today is available on microfilm from The National Archive Publishing Company, www.napubco.com Electronic versions are also available from ProQuest Information and Learning, www.proquest.com Charity Reg. No 208223 ISSN 0043-9134 Printed by Warners Midlands Plc

Cover story 20 Shrinking presidency Don’t expect too much of the next

US president. Aaron David Miller 25 America’s constitutional paralysis Sherard Cowper-Coles Features 5 James Hoge The US needs Europe, but it can’t do anything 7 Andrew Wood Dealing with a wounded Putin 8 Arab Spring The next fight will be inside the ranks of the

Islamists. Jane Kinninmont It’s time to bring North Africa into the European economy. Robin Niblett and Claire Spencer Women in authoritarian states. Madawi Al-Rasheed 16 Niall Ferguson My time in England now feels like a detour 26 Europe Surviving a lost decade. Tony Barber

Don’t expect India to come to the rescue. Ashok V. Desai 30 US and Asia Is the US “pivot” to the Pacific genuine?

Michael Green Piracy, not China, is the real problem. Alex Vines You can’t judge a navy by counting ships. James de Waal Australia rises up. Charles Emmerson 38 Food Land grabs produce big headlines, but where’s the beef? Rob Bailey 40 Burma Philip Delves Broughton returns to the land of his mother and is inspired Regulars 4 Notebook by Jon Snow 15 Ten minutes with... Sultan Al Qassemi 19 Personal view Anatol Lieven on Imran Khan 29 A date with history Korda’s ever-fresh portrait of Che 37 Postcard from... Phnom Penh 45 Jargonbuster takes aim at “sub optimal” 46 Books essay Xenia Dormandy on Kissinger and Kennan 48 Books Ahdaf Soueif’s Egypt reading list 49 Film John Kampfner on the legacy of J. Edgar Hoover 50 The travelling life Claire Spencer Cover by Noma Bar

Director’s view Robin Niblett

Welcome to The World Today in its new format. Since the magazine was founded in 1945 it has chronicled the key events of the Cold War and post-Cold War eras. The year 2012 could be another turning point.

For this edition the focus is the US. At a time of continued debate over the relative decline in its power, Michael Green’s article reminds us of how central the US remains to security in East Asia. On the other side of the Atlantic debt-ridden Europe cannot hope for a financial rescue from the US. In fact, if the eurozone cannot fight its way out of the current impasse, then the risks to the fragile US economic recovery are serious. As James Hoge writes on page 5, America needs the EU now more than ever, and stagnation in Europe would not only affect the US, but lead to contagion elsewhere.

International affairs in 2012 remain on a knife edge. It is in politicians’ hands to write the script that pulls the world out of its inter-locking crises. EU leaders in Berlin and Paris as much as in Rome and Athens share responsibility for stabilising the European economy. China’s leaders must stimulate more domestic consumption to help rebalance the global economy. US leaders, however, will be locked into this year’s presidential campaign. It is up to others to take the initiative. Robin Niblett is the Director of Chatham House the world today | february & march 2012 | 3